Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The Domino Effect (not the pizza, silly!)

The financial world is witnessing a bloodbath, as I type, that has not been observed since the Great Depression of the 1930's. Is there anything more pathologically distressing than the term 'depression' itself, you ask? Thats the sort of picture we're looking at right now. Billions of dollars have evaporated (and still are) since August 2007, when the subprime crisis first raised its diseased head. The contagion spread, and how swiftly! Centuries-old, mammoth and elite institutions are being massacred like contaminated poultry being culled on some third-world farmland. Only this time the farmland is NOT that of a third world country. It is that of the financial behemoth we know as America. The golden land of financial innovation & byzantine products (so complex that even their makers would not fully comprehend) is being brought from lofty heights to its knees. CEO's and other management hotshots who were once hailed for their financial wizardry and made to look as if the sun shined out of their polished arses, are now cowering under shadows of their own brashful actions. They have been humbled (albeit with fat-severance packages for their efforts). The entire US of A has been humbled. Mind you, I'm not anti American hegemony and hence, reveling in their miseries. Neither am I trotting around with the smug air of someone who is insulated from this mega-mess. Because I am indeed affected. I work at a global bank which, although has been shielded from major carnage, is not completely immune to headwinds swiftly coming its way. It is sailing in murky waters and all it takes is one ugly event (or a combination of many) to rock the boat. Just yesterday, one of our peers - Lehman Bros. filed for bankruptcy. And with it, around 2000 employees have lost their jobs in Powai, a few kilometers away from us. Where will they go? Do these financial biggies know the far-reaching effects of their greedy, irresponsible behaviours? When will this recklessness stop & accountability begin? When will the 'regulators' really begin to regulate?

A few crestfallen faces apart, not many are appearing to be affected by the grim situation that faces us. The bank assures us that we are safe. But I've heard that one before. And I've learnt not to bet the last dime in my pocket on such sunny assurances. Fortunately I do not have bills to pay and EMIs to repay on time that would necessitate manic anxiety and sleepless nights. But what about those who do? For their sake, I hope we sail unscathed through these choppy waters. God save us all. Oh, and PS: You can kiss goodbye to your bonuses for this year. 'Pudchya varshi lavkar ya,' is all you can plead!

Meanwhile, I have instructed my financial advisor to stop investing my money in the market for now. For a while now she's been trying (with award-worthy patience) to convince me that one should invest when markets are bearish. 'Okay,' I say for the time being, 'take the money and park it somewhere nice'. But a few months down the line, the only direction the markets are going is southwards. I have this impending urge to yell at her Jerry-Maguire-style: SHOW ME THE MONEY!! 'Patience, Avanti,' she calmingly says, sensing my unease, 'Patience is the hallmark of a successful investor!' Patience can go take a deep dive into the nearest pothole, I say. No more stock markets for me. Even if I'm a long-term-and-hence-you're-guaranteed-returns investor. I'll park my funds in a prim lil' bank. Oh, wait! Aren't they all in serious-shit too? Back to the top of this post. Did someone quip 'vicious circle'?

Atleast I can tell my grandkiddos I was THERE when the big giants were falling like mere ninepins. Though I'm willing to bet they wouldn't envy it. Or even give two hoots 'bout it, for that matter. Just like we didn't learn from our past follies. And so, history will repeat itself for this very fallacy of man.

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